After a relatively stable summer, the latest figures suggest the housing market entered early autumn in a holding pattern. Both Halifax and Nationwide reported modest monthly declines in September, while surveyors noted subdued activity across most regions. Buyers remain cautious, sellers are pragmatic and the market appears to be settling into a quiet period of consolidation.
According to Halifax, the average UK home now costs £298,184, a slight fall of 0.3% in September following a small rise in August. Annual growth has eased to 1.3%, the slowest rate since April 2024, although prices are still 0.3% higher than the start of the year. Nationwide recorded a marginal monthly increase of 0.5%, putting the typical property at £271,995 and annual growth at 2.2%.
While the numbers look modest, the story behind them is one of resilience. A combination of steady wage growth and more competitive mortgage rates has helped underpin prices, even as sales activity has remained muted over the summer.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) data paints a similar picture. The September survey showed buyer demand and agreed sales still in negative territory, with new buyer enquiries down for a third consecutive month. Surveyors across the country told RICS that more of them are seeing prices edge down than rise, suggesting mild downward pressure, albeit regional differences remain. The South East and East Anglia saw the steepest declines, while Scotland and Northern Ireland continued to record modest price gains.
The latest RICS report also found the number of homes coming to the market for sale slowing for the second month in a row, signalling a reduction in choice for buyers as winter approaches. That said, so far in 2025, the number of properties available for sale has been at its highest level for ten years, so while the amount of new sellers is reducing, there’s still plenty of choice for buyers seeking their next move. This is likely to prevent more pronounced price falls, particularly in areas where stock remains tight.
In regional terms, Northern Ireland continues to lead the UK for price growth, up 6.5% year on year to an average of £216,496. Scotland follows at an annual increase of 4.5%, while London and the South East are effectively flat, both rising just 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. This regional split has been a rather recurring theme throughout 2025, with affordability driving strong demand in lower-cost markets and price growth in the South remaining constrained by stretched buyer budgets.
Halifax’s Head of Mortgages, Amanda Bryden, described the overall picture as “broadly stable”, noting that while affordability remains a challenge, steady wage growth and lower borrowing costs are supporting buyer confidence. She also emphasised the wide variation across property types and locations, pointing out that many homes are still priced well below national averages, providing an important reminder for first-time buyers who might otherwise be discouraged by headline figures.
For sellers, realistic pricing remains key. Homes that are sensibly valued are still attracting interest, particularly where they offer strong energy efficiency or are close to good schools and transport links. But in the current climate, buyers do have more negotiating power than they did during the pandemic boom, a dynamic likely to continue in the next few months.
Looking ahead, surveyors expect the subdued tone to persist into early 2026. The RICS outlook suggests no imminent recovery in sales volumes this side of Christmas, with near-term and twelve-month expectations both negative. However, some improvement in buyer sentiment could emerge next spring if inflation remains under control and the Bank of England lowers rates.
Away from prices, there are also changes on the horizon around how homes in England and Wales are bought and sold. The Government has started a new review into the current process, looking at how it could be made faster and fairer for buyers and sellers. Part of this potentially includes new rules around what information would need to be shared about a property before it’s listed for sale, in order to help buyers make better-informed decisions.
And in other property news, at the Conservative Party Conference, Kemi Badenoch made headlines by pledging to abolish stamp duty if her party wins the next general election, which is due in 2029. Such a promise has already sparked debate around the potential implications of such a move, both in terms of the property market but also Treasury revenues. For now, however, it adds another note of uncertainty to an already cautious market, which remains in a holding pattern until after the Autumn Budget, when all eyes will turn to Rachel Reeves and what changes to residential property taxes she might unveil on 26 November.